Proposal of an SEIR Model Considering Inter-group Human Movement among Large Scale of Groups

Abstract

This study proposes an epidemic model using person trips and treats the SEIR model as the re-search model, which extends the SIR model. The study analyzes the actual spread of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus, which occurred throughout Japan around the beginning of the fiscal year 2022. After obtaining the epidemic model based on the SEIR model, the study divides a single epidemic area into four groups to reproduce diverse infections through person trips. Using the records of the number of infected individuals and commuters in Saitama, Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Chiba prefectures from January to April 2022, the study estimates the parameter values of infection rate, recovery rate, and mobility rate. The study discusses epidemic control by applying the estimated parameter values and compares the newly infected data of Saitama, Tokyo, Kana-gawa, and Chiba prefectures used in parameter estimation with the infection data to evaluate the utility of the model. Additionally, the study examines the simulation results by varying the mo-bility rates through several patterns.