Typology of students graduating from college using dropout probabilities

Abstract

This study uses dropout probability to identify the degree to which students who graduated came close to dropping out and to examine how students who graduated went from being close to dropping out to graduating. Dropout probability is a number presented by Shiratori that represents how likely a student is to drop out [3]. Although the dropout probability has been used to analyze the patterns of students who dropped out of school, the process by which students graduated has not been analyzed. In this study, the dropout probability was used to quantify the student status of students who graduated, semester by semester and student by student, and the student status up to graduation was summarized as a transition vector. The transition vectors were then typified using k-means to create patterns of graduated student states. Among the students who graduated, we found that about 14% were in a state in which they could have dropped out. By analyzing the above patterns, we were able to determine how many students were in poor condition and at what stage they were likely to graduate.